The Wall Street finished the trading day in the red as investors express their concern over the unrest in Hongkong and worse than expected macro economic data. The S&P 500 fell by 0.25%, NASDAQ by 0.14% and Dow lost 0.25% from its value. The US Dollar finished the trading day unchanged versus other majors as market waits for critical macro economic data over the next few days. Gold finished unchanged to close at $1,217 an ounce. Crude oil rose by 1.36% to close at $94.22 a barrel. The Euro finished the trading day with few gains after German Prelim CPI came out better than expected. The EUR/USD is trading at its lowest level since November 2012. According to 1 hour chart the RSI chart is not showing oversold levels and MACD is just holding below 0. Both suggest a further downtrend can be expected. The Pound remained unchanged as investors await upcoming PMI reports. The GBP/USD momentum is strongly bearish. Holding below resistance of 1.6270 could lead the pair to the key support of 1.60. The Japanese Yen finished unchanged versus the US Dollar. The USD/JPY is trading above resistance level of 110.00 and a retracement is expected soon. Before the retracement breaching the resistance of 109.70 is likely.
Bullish piercing pattern is a two candletick bullish reversal signal. The first candle is a long bearish candle and the other one is a bullish candle that has closed above the midpoint of the first candle. Take a note that both candles need to have long real body. For it to be a bullish piercing pattern we need to see real change in the market psychology reflected by long candles. We look for this pattern only in a downtrend.
Hantec Markets brings you the latest technical analysis on the GBP/USD pair for the September 30th in this video.
GBP/USD — The pair has yet again found a little bit of support but nothing significant yet with 1.6230 being the low and we are still with in the downtrend as indicated by the downtrend line. And it looks like a bounce is an opportunity to sell. The momentum indicators in the daily chart look bearish. Looking at the hourly chart the 1.6280 level which was support has now turned into resistance and now it is the first basis of resistance. And we have our second lower high at 1.6340. Because of these key levels of resistance we see recoveries as a chance to sell. A retest of 1.6160 level to the downside is likely.
In this video the Trader Guy looks at currency pair EUR/USD pair for the upcoming September 30th session.
EUR/USD — As you can see we tried to rally during the session on Monday and we simply failed at the 1.27 level and formed a shooting star in the daily chart, which is a fairly bearish sign. This is a market without a doubt in a downtrend at this point and I don’t think this is going to change anytime soon. Infact I am convinced of any rally at this point of time, until we get above the 1.30 level. This looks very unlikely at the moment. Having said that, rallies are only seen as an opportunity to sell. Today we have European CPI Flash Estimate and German Unemployment numbers coming out. So there are a couple of possible different market moving data for the Euro. I think we are going towards 1.25 level and there is nothing on this chart to justify that markets are going to change its perspective anytime soon. I still remain bearish and looks like its good for short term traders to make small chunks like 30 pips or so in each trade.
ADS Securities brings you the latest Daily Fundamental Update for the September 29th in this video.
During the Asian session today there were no economic releases however the volatility picked up further especially the Aussie and Kiwi pairs. The NZD fell across the board on New Zealand Prime Minister remarks and New Zealand’s PM says ‘Goldlocks’ level for NZD/USD is around 0.6500. Going forward to the European session today there were collection of economic releases across the day which are likely to have noteable impact on the market. German CPI set to decline by -0.1% in September. Spanish CPI set to decline by -0.3% in September. UK’s Net Lending to Individuals may decline to 3.1 billion in August. UK’S Mortgage Approvals set to decline to 66K in August.
Looking at the US session today US Core PCE Price Index set to remain unchanged in August. US Personal Spending may rise by 0.5% in August and US Personal Income may rise by 0.3% in August. US Pending Home Sales may decline by -0.4% in August
Hantec Markets brings you the latest technical analysis on the GBP/USD pair for the September 29th in this video.
GBP/USD — I reckon there is a few probably disappointed Sterling bulls out there because the momentum just shifted to the downside. On Friday we broke below the key support level of 1.6282 and now that has turned into resistance again. It now reopens the possibility of the test of reaction low of 1.6160. I think selling pressure is going to mount on this 1.6160 level. The Momentum indicators don’t look anything positive at the moment. Looking at the hourly chart we have this uptrend line broken and price breached to the downside and price making lower highs and latest lower high coming at 1.6340. The near term hourly moving averages all falling lower and indicating downtrend. The hourly momentum indicators also look bearish at the moment. So selling on rallies is a way to go with this pair at the moment.
Shooting star is a bearish reversal signal which has a small real body with very small or no lower shadow and a long upper shadow. For it to be a proper shooting star upper shadow needs to be atleast twice the size of the real body. The shooting star occuring at the end of a downtrend is called a inverted hammer. The inverted hammer is often considered a bullish reversal signal. Once again I would like you to stop and consider before opening long positions after inverted hammer has appeared. Remember the long upper shadow means that the initial bullish move was rejected by bears and when trading reversals you really want to see a change in the market psychology. Whatever candlestick you see, a long upper shadow is by no means bullish.
In this video the Trader Guy looks at currency pair EUR/USD pair for the upcoming September 29th session.
EUR/USD — We do have the German Preliminary CPI numbers anticipated to comin out. Thats the one economic announcement I think could move this market. If the numbers come out better than anticipated I don’t expect it to do much for the Euro. Right now I am looking at the market that has just broken down below the bottom of a hammer which is a very negative sign. The 1.28 level was massively supportive and the fact that we sliced through this level tells me so much. This is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the longer term chart. We are likely to see 1.25 level and based on longer term chart we could see 1.20 level. It looks like rallies are seen as selling opportunities on short term chart. We expect lots of volatility and the drop from 1.34 level has been absolutely stunning. I think short term traders are going to love this pair for quite sometime.
A Hammer is a bullish reversal signal and it has a small real body, very small or no upper shadow and a long lower shadow. For it to be a proper hammer the lower shadow needs to be atleast twice the size of the real body. We look for a hammer in a downtrend. A Hammer seen after a strong down move at support is a very strong reversal signal. It indicates that the bulls may be ready to take control. The Hanging man looks exactly the same as hammer, the only difference is that we can find it an uptrend. A Hanging man works the same way as a hammer but the Hanging man is a bearish reversal signal. A Hanging man found after a strong up move at resistance is a very strong reversal signal.
Marubozu is the exact opposite candlestick to Doji. As Doji represents indecision in the market, Marubozu shows total conviction about price direction. Bullish Maribozu open price is also the session’s low and closing price is equal to session’s high. This candlestick has no shadows at all showing that buyers were in control for all time of the session. Bearish Maribozu’s open price is equal to session’s high and closing price is equal to session’s low. This one also has no shadows indicating sellers have control over the price action over the whole session. The Maribozu candlestick has no trading implications on its own, however it clearly shows current market sentiment. It can be helpful in situations like breakouts or reversals. As the price is broken the resistance low, the bullish maribozu shows there was no selling pressure from the bears giving a larger probability at the breakout to be successful. Or a bearish maribozu with resistance could indicate a complete change in the current market sentiment.