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Nicole Elliott — The Fantastic GBP Trading Opportunities

There are some ‘fantastic’ opportunities in sterling even though we’ve been largely trading in ranges for some time. That’s according to the renowned technical analyst, Nicole Elliott who sees particular value in EUR/GBP.On Wednesday.
Nicole Elliott: The market has been trading bad and has been going in and out numerous times and in a range. Since summer we have had a series of descending highs. This year’s low was set in April at 1.4650. Looking at the weekly EUR/GBP chart, we see that its holding so well and basically you want to go long at 0.7000 and reverse the trade at 0.7400. I do think the pound will eventually move down to 0.6600.
There is a speculation in London that the Bank of England will raise Interest rates and the bond market looks particularly interesting to look at. If we look at the yield and 30 year benchmark GILT, we are currently trading sub 2.75% and that had been the record low in 2012 and are now trading well below that again in a pretty well established band. Its fairly narrow and steady and another possibility for the Interest rate players to make some money out of that one.

Daily Forex News and Analysis — November 26th 2015

The Wall Street finished mixed after mixed economic data. The Dow Jones rose by 0.01%, S&P 500 fell by 0.0% and NASDAQ added 0.26% to its value. The US Dollar traded high against most major currencies as Unemployment Claims result boosted investor optimism over the strength of the economy. Also the New Home Sales came out less than expected at 495K vs. 500K forecast. No economic data today due to Thanksgiving holiday. Gold fell to close at $1,071 an ounce. Crude oil rose to close at $43.08 a barrel.
The Euro fell versus the dollar to close at 1.0623. On the daily chart the pair has broken the support of 1.0820 and is trading with RSI below 50. As long as pair maintains these conditions a drop towards 1.05 is expected. Today M3 Money Supply is expected unchanged at 4.9%. The Pound rose versus the US Dollar to close at 1.5123. On the 1 hour chart the pair is trading close to the upper band of Bollinger bands indicator. Maintaining these conditions may continue the bullish momentum and a rise towards 1.53. However crossing below the lower band may start a reversal and a fall towards 1.50. No economic data is expected today.

Coleman — Looking for a Upswing in GBP/JPY

Thanksgiving makes the hunt for opportunities a little bit more elusive especially as liquidity tends to dry up but despite a medium-term bearish trend in GBP/JPY, Ian Coleman has spotted signs of a possible upswing.
Ian Coleman: The Thanksgiving in US means low liquidity and lack of any economic releases. So we expect consolidation in Forex majors. Looking at the dollar index we have mixed USD trading for last 12 days. This has formed a possible Head and Shoulders formation with 98.50 to 98.40 is key support in dollar index today. The GBP/JPY offers counter trend move. The medium term trend is bearish. We hit channel top at 188.80. The follow through selling produced doji candle on weekly chart. We are oversold and DeMark has posted correction count on 4 hour chart. We are now looking for swing to upside in Elliott wave formation and the bias is bullish. Today we are looking to buy the GBP/JPY, to buy the dip at 185.06 and however if it breaks 185.66 and stop is 50 pips from entry. Target levels at 186.00 and 187.70.

Three Forex Mistakes to Avoid

Forex trading can be very profitable or can be endless series of losses. In order to profit from trading currencies and avoid losses there are 3 forex mistakes to avoid. These have to do with scams, your approach to trading and the twin trading demons of fear and greed. Periodically the Forex news reports a Forex scam. An investor is entied into giving money to a Forex trader who promises huge profits. There is no free lunch in Forex trading. This is first of 3 Forex mistakes to avoid. Don’t fall for stories of easy profits. Forex trading can be profitable but it is a job. You need to learn the ropes, pay attention and show up everyday for work. Successful forex trading is not gambling. A joke in Spanish that the word is casion is appropriate for what happens there. We wrote recently about Forex technical analysis. It is absolutely possible to let the past predict the future and profit thereby.
Modern Forex technical analysis works because it is based on statistics, the history of the market. Signals that have a high degree of reliability are used to predict the next market move. This system works the best with high trading volume and liquidity. Thus the best way to use Forex technical analysis is with major currency pairs. The second of 3 Forex mistakes to avoid is trading without a system, a plan. Learn to analyze the fundamentas and technical cues in the Forex market and you will find profits.
Too many traders devise strategies for trading but don’t follow those strategies when the market is charging ahead or plunging. The third of 3 mistakes to avoid is letting the psychological demons, fear and greed, insert themselves in your trading. Create a sound Forex strategy and stick with it.

Selling EUR/USD Ahead of Key Event Risks

John Hardy explains why his move to sell EUR/USD has already had traction this Wednesday as a descending channel moves in.
John Hardy: So we looked at selling the EUR/USD pair this morning. We are looking at the key 1.07 tactical resistance area. We have got descending channel coming in as well. Really this trade aimed at simply big backdrop, we are heading into December, we have dramatic policy divergence and we have upcoming Thanksgiving holiday in US. We have room to travel towards the 1.05 lows with tight stop. We have already seen significant drop in the EUR/USD pair and it does not mean that it is too late to get in. We have lowered the stop now and the trade is in our favour.

Lucas — AUD/USD Bouncing Higher

Steve Lucas: November’s bounce ended sequence of lower weekly highs and lows. It has now posted higher weekly lows and highs. The rally has come from close to 6 year lows at 0.6895 in September. It has taken prices above the 50 and 100 averages. There is an element of safe haven buying. At the end of the day I think the rally is temporary and the signals point higher. So the call today is to buy on open and buy on dips at 0.7247. The stop on this trade at 0.7220. This is just below yesterday’s Marabuzo line. Targets at 0.7309 and 0.7366.

Daily Forex News and Analysis — November 25th 2015

The US Indices finished in the green on Tuesday as investors focused on global politics after Turkey shot down a Russian airplane. The Dow Jones rose by 0.11%, NASDAQ by 0.01% and S&P 500 added 0.12% to its value. The US Dollar traded higher against most major currencies as data showed that US economy grew more than initially in the 3rd quarter. The Prelim GDP came out better than expected at 2.1% vs. 2% forecast. Today Unemployment Claims is expected at 273K vs. 271K previously. High volatility can be expected. Gold rose to close at $1075 an ounce. Crude oil rose to close at $42.62 a barrel.
The Euro finished higher against the dollar on Tuesday with German IFO Business Climate coming out better than expected at 109.0 vs. 108.3 forecast. On the daily chart the EUR/USD is trading above the support level at 1.0580. This may lead the pair towards 1.08. However with a negative momentum below 0 it is expected to break below the level towards 1.0450. The Pound finished lower against the dollar. On the 1 hour chart the GBP/USD is holding below the bearish trend level with RSI indicator below 50. Maintaining these conditions should lead to a fall towards 1.50 while breaching the level may take it back towards 1.5250.

Trade Foreign Currencies

People trade Foreign currencies for 2 distinctly different reasons. First of all companies that buy products from foreigners pay with foreign currencies. They trade foreign currencies to make payment and often buy currency options to hedge currency risk. These traders limit themselves to the currencies involved, their own and that of the currency from whom they are going to purchase a foreign product. On the other hand speculators trade foreign currencies for profit. They pick and choose currency pairs to trade based on market volatility and their analysis of fundamental and technical factors.
Forex trading and currency risk are inextricably intertwined. Currency risk is a form of risk that arises from the change in price of one currency against another. The basic need for Forex market comes from need to do business across national boundaries. A translation risk is the risk that the Forex market rates will change between writing a contract and final payment. Companies commonly buy currency options in order to set a price that they will pay no matter how much the relative value of a currency pair changes. Currency speculators are not tied to a given currency pair. They will scout market volatility, analyze fundamentals and track market sentiment with technical indicators. Then they will place timely trades in order to profit from the inefficiency of a moving market. The point of speculating is not to hedge risk but rather to make money trading currencies. Technical analysis tools such as Japanese candlesticks help traders anticipate price fluctuations based on changes in market sentiment. Fundamental analysis tells a trader where the market will eventually end up so that he can place his trade and simply wait for the market to come to him. As with all business, showing up everyday and learning the appropriate skill sets are what lead to success. And as always, do not trade when you are too tired to think. Check out every tip that you receive.

Hardy — Sterling Could Fall Further and Here’s Why

Sterling has been falling since last week particularly against the dollar. But Saxo’s John Hardy explains why he thinks cable could move lower, particularly if there is good data out of the United States next week.
John Hardy: We had a bit of up and down in Cable. We had the Core Inflation report couple of weeks ago which looked extremely dovish. We have seen the Bank of England looking for ECB’s easing program and want to send a clear message that it did not want to sound hawkish with the intention to avoid sterling getting too strong. Now we are seeing sterling weaker across the board. The BOE sent dovish signal in inflation report. Looking at the rate spreads between UK and US we have the rates higher in US than UK. So the GBP could trade much lower against USD.
We have PCE Price Index out on Wednesday. If PCE data comes low we could see USD consolidation. Also we have Janet Yellen speech on Wednesday that could provide further signals. We have US NonFarm Payroll out on Friday December 4th. We have ECB Meeting on Thursday December 3rd. It will be a big week for EUR/USD pair. The RBA has been talking on complacent terms and speaking positive about the Australian economy. It could ease if neccessary and the Aussie has benefitted. We are looking for it to head higher. 0.7250 is our next level in AUD/USD.

AUD/CHF — Daily Forecast Technical Analysis — November 24th 2015

In this video the trader guy looks at currency pair AUD/CHF pair for the November 24th session.
AUD/CHF — For most part of the US Dollar in the next couple of sessions with Thanksgiving holiday coming up, it could affect the liquidity. This is a cross pair I think is pretty straightforward. We have a situation where we have the Swiss Franc has been very negative. A lot of that has to do with European Union. We broke out of this ascending channel to the upside, so there should be a plenty of support around 0.7250 level. Also the recent high could be supportive. So this is seen as a zone. Hence if we fall its only a matter of time before we could go higher. I know that Gold is not supporting the Aussie dollar but the Swiss Franc is unfortunately stuck in Europe and the knockout continues. The Interest Rate differentials ofcourse favours Australia but and with that I see pullbacks as buying opportunities and we should go go 0.7500 level given enough time.

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